Have you ever watched a cryptocurrency teeter on the edge of a critical support level and wondered if this time it’s finally going to crack—or hold strong and surprise everyone with a comeback? That’s exactly where XRP finds itself right now in early 2026.
The price has been hovering around a zone that technical traders have circled for months, and the action over the past few days feels different. There’s a quiet confidence building among buyers, the kind that often precedes something bigger. Let’s unpack what’s really going on beneath the surface.
Why the $1.74 Level Matters More Than Ever
In the world of technical analysis, certain price zones carry extra weight because multiple indicators line up at the same spot. For XRP, the area just above $1.74 has become one of those rare confluences that can make or break the next big move.
This isn’t just any random support. It combines the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the most recent major swing with the value area low from volume profile analysis. When these two powerful tools overlap, smart money tends to pay attention.
I’ve followed charts long enough to know that these levels often act like magnets. Price gets drawn toward them, tests them aggressively, and then—depending on the reaction—either absorbs the selling pressure or gives way to more downside. So far, the reaction here has been encouraging.
Understanding the Fibonacci Connection
Fibonacci retracements are one of those tools that sound mystical but are actually rooted in simple mathematics. Traders use them to identify potential reversal zones based on the golden ratio that appears throughout nature and, interestingly, in financial markets too.
The 0.618 level—often called the “golden retracement”—has a reputation for marking deep but sustainable pullbacks. When price holds here, it frequently signals that the larger trend is still intact and ready to resume. For XRP, defending this zone would suggest the broader uptrend from previous cycles hasn’t fully surrendered yet.
What makes this setup even more compelling is how cleanly price has respected it. Rather than slicing straight through, we’ve seen repeated bounces and consolidation just above the line. That kind of behavior usually means someone—or a lot of someones—is actively buying the dips.
Volume Profile and the Value Area Low
Volume profile takes a different approach by showing where the majority of trading actually occurred over a given period. The value area represents the price range where roughly 70% of volume exchanged hands—the fair value zone, essentially.
The low end of that value area often acts as strong support because it’s where institutions and larger players accumulated positions. When price returns to this region, those same players frequently defend it to protect their average cost.
Seeing the value area low align almost perfectly with the 0.618 Fib creates what analysts call a high-probability confluence zone. In my experience, these are the spots where real trend changes can begin, especially after extended moves in one direction.
Confluence zones like this don’t guarantee anything, but they dramatically increase the odds of a meaningful reaction. History shows that when price holds these levels with conviction, the eventual breakout tends to be explosive.
Signs of Bullish Accumulation Emerging
Perhaps the most intriguing development isn’t the level itself, but how price is behaving around it. Instead of panic selling or capitulation wicks below support, we’re seeing controlled consolidation and higher lows on lower timeframes.
This pattern is classic accumulation. Sellers throw whatever they have at the market, but each push lower gets bought up quickly and quietly. Volume hasn’t spiked dramatically on downside moves, which tells me the selling pressure is drying up rather than intensifying.
- Price forming a tight range just above key support
- Decreasing downside momentum on each test
- Higher timeframe candles closing strongly
- Lack of aggressive follow-through selling
Taken together, these clues paint a picture of patient buyers stepping in. It reminds me of previous cycles where XRP spent weeks—or even months—building bases at important levels before launching significant rallies.
The Point of Control as the Next Hurdle
If bulls manage to hold this support and start pushing higher, the first real test will come at the point of control—the price level with the highest traded volume in the visible range. This often acts as a pivot point for market structure.
Reclaiming the POC would break the current series of lower highs and flip the short-term structure bullish. That single move could trigger a wave of short covering and fresh buying, potentially sending price toward the value area high and beyond.
From there, longer-term targets around previous resistance zones—like the $3 region—start coming back into play. It wouldn’t happen overnight, but the setup would certainly justify optimism.
Why the Broader Structure Still Matters
To be completely fair, we have to acknowledge the elephant in the room: XRP’s higher timeframe trend remains bearish. We’re still making lower highs and lower lows, and that definition won’t change until price proves otherwise.
Any bounce from current levels should initially be viewed as corrective rather than the start of a new bull market. The real confirmation would come from sustained acceptance above key moving averages and previous swing highs.
That said, every major trend reversal starts somewhere. And they often begin exactly like this—with a stubborn defense of deep support followed by gradual accumulation. Dismissing the possibility entirely would be just as risky as assuming a moonshot is guaranteed.
What History Teaches Us About Similar Setups
Looking back at previous XRP cycles reveals some striking parallels. During the 2020-2021 run, price spent considerable time consolidating around Fibonacci levels before eventually breaking higher with force.
Similar basing patterns appeared before major moves in 2017 as well. The common thread? Patient accumulation at technically significant zones, followed by sharp expansions once resistance gave way.
Of course, past performance isn’t destiny. But when the technical ingredients align this cleanly, it’s hard to ignore the potential implications.
Risk Management in Volatile Conditions
Whatever your view on XRP’s next move, the current environment demands careful risk management. Cryptocurrency markets remain highly emotional and prone to sharp swings in either direction.
- Define clear invalidation levels below current support
- Scale into positions rather than going all-in
- Use trailing stops to protect gains if momentum shifts
- Stay aware of broader market correlations
These simple principles become even more important when trading around major inflection points. The difference between a profitable trade and a painful loss often comes down to preparation.
Looking Ahead: Possible Scenarios
If the accumulation narrative continues to play out, we could see XRP gradually grind higher over the coming weeks. A break and hold above the point of control would be the first major bullish confirmation.
On the flip side, a decisive close below $1.74 with expanding volume would likely open the door to deeper correction. That scenario becomes less probable with each session that price holds firm, but it can never be ruled out entirely.
Either way, this level has become the line in the sand. How price resolves here will likely set the tone for XRP’s trajectory through the first quarter of 2026 and possibly beyond.
For now, the balance appears to be tipping—however slightly—toward the bulls. Whether that tilt becomes a full-blown shift remains to be seen. But one thing feels certain: we’re watching a potentially pivotal moment unfold in real time.
Sometimes the most exciting opportunities come disguised as boring consolidation. Keep watching this space.
