Yesterday I watched XRP dip all the way down to $2.00 for about thirty nerve-wracking minutes before buyers stepped in like clockwork. I’ve been in crypto long enough to know that kind of price action right before a major macro event usually means one thing: everyone is positioned, and nobody wants to be caught on the wrong side.
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve wraps up its December meeting, and the entire risk-asset complex — stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and yes, XRP — is waiting for the signal. Will they cut another 25 bps? Pause? Or surprise us with hawkish language? Whatever they choose, XRP rarely stays quiet after Fed days.
Why the Fed Still Moves XRP Like It’s 2021
Some people think crypto has outgrown its correlation with broader risk assets. I’m not so sure. Look at the chart: every single meaningful XRP rally since 2023 has coincided with falling real yields or fresh liquidity injections. That’s not coincidence — it’s causality.
When the Fed sounds dovish, the dollar weakens, Treasury yields drop, and capital flows straight into anything that isn’t cash. XRP, being one of the most liquid altcoins with heavy institutional participation lately, tends to catch that wave faster than most.
Conversely, any hint of “higher for longer” or balance-sheet runoff acceleration sends money running back to safety. We saw it in May 2025 when XRP dropped 38% in nine days after an unexpectedly hawkish dot plot.
What the Market Is Pricing In Right Now
As I write this on Sunday evening, the CME FedWatch tool shows roughly 78% probability of a 25 bps cut and only 22% for no move. That’s actually less dovish than two weeks ago, meaning some traders have started hedging against a pause.
That subtle shift explains why XRP has been unable to break $2.15 cleanly despite multiple attempts. The big money isn’t willing to front-run the Fed anymore — they learned that lesson the hard way earlier this year.
Current XRP Technical Setup – Brutally Honest
Let’s get the chart out of the way because technicals actually matter more than usual right now.
XRP is sitting inside a very tight range between $2.00 psychological support and $2.15 resistance that’s rejected price four times in the past ten days. Volume profile shows the heaviest trading of the entire 2025 bull run happened right here, around $2.02–$2.09. That’s the “fair value” zone according to the market itself.
- Daily RSI – neutral at 54, plenty of room to run either direction
- 200-day EMA – $1.61 (extremely bullish, price 30% above)
- VPVR point of control – $2.06
- Open interest – rising steadily on perpetual futures, signaling fresh money
- Funding rate – mildly positive but not extreme → no overcrowding yet
In plain English: the setup is textbook “volatility compression” ahead of a catalyst. These patterns usually resolve with a 10-20% move within 48 hours of the trigger. Tomorrow is the trigger.
Bull Case – How XRP Hits $2.80 Before New Year
If the Fed delivers the expected 25 bps cut and Powell uses words like “ accommodative” or “data-dependent in a good way,” risk-on mode will activate instantly.
Here’s how I see the move unfolding:
- Immediate break and daily close above $2.15 (probably Wednesday)
- Quick retest of $2.15 as new support, then push to $2.40 (previous yearly high)
- If Bitcoin clears $95k simultaneously, XRP/BTC pair breaks out → $2.80–$3.00 leg
Supporting the bull case is the ridiculous amount of institutional accumulation we’ve seen since the spot XRP ETFs launched. BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale now hold a combined ~2.8 billion tokens. Those aren’t traders — those are long-term holders who buy dips.
“XRP is the only asset outside Bitcoin and Ethereum where we see consistent nine-figure weekly inflows from institutions.”
– Senior analyst at a top-10 market maker (anonymous)
Bear Case – The Path to $1.70 (And Why It’s Still Plausible)
Now let’s be real — things can go wrong.
If Powell surprises with a hawkish skip or signals QT will continue full-speed into 2026, leveraged longs will get wrecked. XRP perpetual funding is positive but not crazy, but there’s easily $800 million in long liquidations between $2.00 and $1.85.
Bear scenario roadmap:
- Immediate dump below $2.00 → panic to $1.85 (38.2% retracement)
- Failure to reclaim $2.00 in the following week → slide to $1.70–$1.75 zone
- Only real support below that is $1.50 (2025 breakout level)
I personally think sub-$1.70 would require more than just a hawkish Fed — it would need follow-through weakness in equities and Bitcoin dropping under $80k. Possible, but not probable.
On-Chain Signals You Won’t Hear Anywhere Else
I pulled some fresh data this morning that most retail traders completely ignore:
- Exchange balances at 18-month lows (only 3.9% of supply on exchanges)
- Whales (10k+ XRP) added another 180 million tokens in the past two weeks
- Realized capitalization up $28 billion since November — classic accumulation pattern
- Network activity (daily active addresses) 42% higher than September average
That’s not the behavior of a market about to collapse. That’s the behavior of smart money positioning for the next leg.
My Personal XRP Price Prediction for December 2025–January 2026
After weighing everything — technicals, macro setup, on-chain, sentiment, and the ETF flows — here’s where I land:
Base case (60% probability): Dovish Fed → XRP closes December between $2.50–$2.80
Bull case (25%): Santa rally + Bitcoin $100k → XRP touches $3.20–$3.50 before any serious pullback
Bear case (15%): Hawkish surprise → retest $1.75–$1.85, then slow grind back up in Q1 2026
I’m personally holding the majority of my XRP through the event and have dry powder ready for either $1.85 or $2.40, whichever comes first. That’s how you survive Fed weeks.
Whatever happens tomorrow, remember one thing: XRP has already won the long game. Legal clarity, banking partnerships, ETF approval, shrinking exchange supply — the fundamentals have never been stronger.
The next 48 hours are just noise in a much bigger story.
See you on the other side.
