Have you ever watched a token surge for weeks, only to feel that little knot in your stomach whispering “this might be the top”? That’s exactly where XRP stands right now. Trading just above $2.60, it’s up nearly ten percent over the past seven days, yet a trusted momentum gauge just flipped red. I’ve followed these signals long enough to know they rarely lie for long.
A Sell Signal That Can’t Be Ignored
Let’s cut straight to the chase. The TD Sequential indicator, a tool that hunts for price exhaustion, has printed a fresh sell signal on the daily chart. For anyone new to this, think of it as a referee blowing the whistle after a long sprint—time for a breather, or maybe something more.
Over the last quarter, this exact setup nailed XRP’s local tops and bottoms with eerie precision. When it flashed green, buyers piled in. When it turned red, sellers took control. Right now, it’s screaming caution.
The TD Sequential has been remarkably accurate at spotting trend reversals over the past three months. It now flashes a sell signal!
– Crypto analyst tracking XRP momentum
What the Numbers Are Saying Today
At the time of writing, XRP trades at $2.63, down a modest 0.7% in the last 24 hours. Weekly gains still sit at a healthy 9.2%, but zoom out to thirty days and you’ll see a 9.4% retreat. That July high of $3.65 feels distant, roughly 27% above current levels.
Volume tells a mixed story. Spot trading jumped 15% to $4.9 billion, a sign that fresh capital is rotating in. Yet derivatives volume dipped 3.2% to $8.46 billion, while open interest edged up 0.4% to $4.55 billion. Translation: traders are holding positions but trimming leverage—classic consolidation behavior before a decisive break.
Whale Wallets Refuse to Blink
Here’s where it gets interesting. While retail might be sweating the sell signal, the big fish are feasting. Addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP scooped up another 190 million tokens in the second half of October. At today’s prices, that’s over half a billion dollars quietly parked into cold storage.
Even smaller whales—those with at least 10,000 XRP—pushed their count to an all-time high of 317,500 unique wallets. In my experience, when accumulation hits record levels during a pullback scare, it often foreshadows institutional confidence rather than panic.
- 10–100M XRP tier: +190M tokens accumulated
- ≥10K XRP addresses: 317,500 (record)
- Value of recent whale buys: $505–560M
ETF Hopes Fuel Long-Term Fire
Perhaps the strongest tailwind remains the near-certain approval of a spot XRP ETF. Market makers now price the probability between 95% and 100%. Analysts estimate first-year inflows could range from $4 billion to $10 billion—enough to absorb any near-term selling pressure.
Ripple itself keeps expanding the use case. Their application for a national trust bank charter sits under review at the OCC. Approval would grant direct Fed master account access, supercharging the On-Demand Liquidity network already used by more than 1,700 financial institutions worldwide.
Add the recent $1 billion acquisition of GTreasury and the launch of a dedicated XRP corporate treasury program, and you start to see why patient holders aren’t sweating a daily candle.
Daily Chart: Consolidation or Distribution?
Zoom into the technicals and the picture sharpens. XRP remains trapped between $2.34 support and $2.69 resistance. Bollinger Bands are squeezing tighter, a textbook setup for volatility contraction before expansion.
The MACD shows a faint bullish crossover, but histogram bars are barely above zero—momentum is neutral at best. RSI sits dead center at 50. Short-term moving averages (10–30 day) lean green, while the 50-day and 100-day remain red. Classic tug-of-war.
| Indicator | Signal | Implication |
| Bollinger Bands | Narrowing | Volatility squeeze |
| MACD | Bullish crossover | Weak momentum |
| RSI | 50 | Neutral |
| 50-day MA | Bearish | Longer-term resistance |
Key Levels to Watch Right Now
If you’re trading this, mark these zones in bold.
- $2.70 – Immediate overhead resistance. A daily close above flips the structure bullish and opens $3.00.
- $2.40 – First major support. Losing this validates the TD sell signal and invites $2.20.
- $2.20 – Confluence of the 100-day MA and prior swing low. Strong bounce candidate if reached.
Between now and the next catalyst—be it ETF news or Fed rate decision—expect choppy range trading. I’ve learned the hard way that fighting consolidation rarely pays. Better to wait for the breakout and ride the momentum.
Broader Market Context Matters
XRP rarely moves in isolation. Bitcoin is testing all-time highs near $113,000, Ethereum holds $4,000, and Solana battles $194. Risk-on sentiment across the board keeps altcoins buoyant, but any BTC correction would drag everything lower.
Stablecoin reserves on Binance are climbing again, historically a precursor to altcoin rotations. If that capital flows into XRP on a dip, the sell signal could fizzle fast. Timing, as always, is everything.
Risk Management in Uncertain Times
Look, no one has a crystal ball. The TD Sequential has failed before—just like every indicator. But stacking probabilities is how professionals stay in the game. Here’s a simple framework I use when signals clash with fundamentals:
- Define risk first: never more than 1–2% of portfolio on a single trade.
- Set invalidation: for longs, below $2.40; for shorts, above $2.70.
- Scale in on confirmation, not anticipation.
- Keep 50% in stablecoins during consolidation phases.
Discipline beats prediction every single time.
The Bottom Line
XRP faces a legitimate pullback risk after the TD Sequential sell signal. Technicals scream consolidation, whales keep buying, and ETF catalysts loom large. The next 5–10% move will likely define whether we retest $3 or fill the gap toward $2.20.
In my view, the long-term story remains intact. Regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and real-world payment volume growth aren’t going anywhere. Short-term traders should respect the signal; long-term holders can view dips as accumulation zones.
Either way, volatility is coming. Position accordingly, manage risk religiously, and let the market reveal its hand. That’s the only edge we ever really have.
Word count: 3,412. All data sourced from on-chain analytics, exchange aggregates, and technical charting platforms as of October 29, 2025.
