Have you ever watched a token get everything it ever wanted and still roll over and play dead?
That’s exactly what XRP is doing right now. Ripple just scored one of the biggest regulatory wins in crypto history, ETFs are vacuuming up cash like there’s no tomorrow, the company valuation hit $40 billion, and the price? It’s busy carving out new monthly lows. Welcome to 2025 crypto – where good news apparently goes to die.
A Banking Charter Should Be Rocket Fuel – So Why Is XRP Bleeding?
Last Friday the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency handed Ripple Labs something most crypto companies can only dream about: preliminary conditional approval for a full national trust bank charter.
In plain English, Ripple can now legally operate its own federally regulated bank in the United States. That means custody services, fiduciary products, and the ability to hold client assets directly instead of paying hefty fees to third parties like BNY Mellon.
For a company that spent years fighting the SEC in court, this is nothing short of monumental. Most projects would have mooned 50-100% on news like this alone. XRP? It yawned, dropped another few percent, and kept sliding.
What the Charter Actually Changes (It’s Bigger Than You Think)
Let me break it down, because the implications go way beyond a fancy license.
- Ripple can now custody its own RLUSD stablecoin reserves in-house → millions saved in fees every year.
- The company instantly becomes a one-stop regulated shop for institutional clients who were previously nervous about regulatory risk.
- Acquisitions like Hidden Road and GTreasury suddenly make perfect sense – Ripple now has the legal infrastructure to offer prime brokerage and treasury services under a banking umbrella.
- Cross-border settlements just got a turbo boost: bank-to-bank transfers instead of pure blockchain rails in certain jurisdictions.
Honestly, if you wrote this script in 2021 people would have called you insanely bullish. Yet here we are.
ETFs Are Printing Money – And Nobody Cares?
Another head-scratcher: XRP exchange-traded products are on fire.
The combined assets in spot XRP ETFs crossed $1 billion weeks ago and have never seen a single day of net outflows – an almost unheard-of feat in this market. Just this week we got approval for yet another product from a major issuer.
Normally that kind of relentless institutional buying pushes price up. Instead XRP is busy retesting the psychological $2 level like it’s 2023 all over again.
“Inflows without price appreciation usually means one thing: someone very large is distributing at higher levels.”
– Veteran macro trader (paraphrased)
Draw your own conclusions.
The Brutal Technical Picture Nobody Wants to Talk About
Let’s get to the charts, because they’re screaming louder than any news headline right now.
XRP has been in a textbook downtrend since the July 2025 peak around $3.66. Price is tracing a perfect descending channel, repeatedly rejecting the upper trendline and rolling over.
More worryingly, we just lost the $2.00 round number that held as support multiple times since October. Once a level flips from support to resistance, the next major zone usually comes into play fast.
- 50-day EMA: lost
- Supertrend indicator: flipped bearish
- Descending trendline resistance: rejected again this week
- Momentum oscillators: rolling over on all timeframes
Perhaps the clearest signal comes from Murrey Math Lines – an old-school tool that’s scary accurate in trending markets. The current breakdown puts the 0/8 line at $1.5625 squarely in focus. That’s almost exactly 20% below where we sit today.
I’ve been trading long enough to know that when multiple confluence points line up like this, you don’t fight it.
So Is This the Classic “Sell the News” Trade?
There’s an old saying in markets: buy the rumor, sell the news. But this feels different.
The banking charter wasn’t heavily rumored – it came somewhat out of left field. Same with several of the recent ETF approvals. So the usual front-running explanation doesn’t quite fit.
More likely we’re seeing the aftermath of the massive 2024-2015 parabolic run. XRP went from $0.50 to $3.66 in less than a year – a 600%+ move. Multi-year corrections after moves that violent are completely normal, even with good fundamental news.
Remember 2018? Bitcoin topped at $20k, then spent the entire year chopping sideways to down despite constant “institutional adoption” headlines. History rhymes.
Where Could Price Go From Here? Two Scenarios
Bear case (higher probability right now):
- Quick flush to $1.75–$1.80 retest of the previous range high
- Final leg down to $1.56 (Murrey 0/8 and 61.8% retracement confluence)
- Possible overshoot to $1.40 if we get a broader crypto capitulation
Bull case (needs catalyst):
- Daily close back above $2.20 flips the short-term structure
- Reclaim of the descending trendline (~$2.45) opens move toward $2.80–$3.00
- Major breakout only above the all-time high ~$3.84
Right now the bears are driving. Until we see serious buying volume on a daily close above the trendline, assuming downside is the smart play.
Final Thoughts – Patience or Panic?
Here’s the thing: Ripple the company is arguably in the strongest position it’s ever been. Banking charter, profitable, growing stablecoin, acquisitions, regulatory clarity in multiple jurisdictions – the fundamentals have never looked better.
But price is price. And price doesn’t care about your narrative until it does.
If you’re a long-term holder, this dip might actually be the gift that keeps on giving once the macro environment turns. If you’re trading the short-to-medium term, though, the charts are pretty clear: respect the downtrend until proven otherwise.
Me? I’m keeping the majority in cold storage and a small allocation for swing trades on either side. Because in crypto, being flexible usually beats being “right.”
Stay safe out there.
