Have you ever watched a crypto chart drop hard, breach a key level, and then suddenly snap back as if nothing happened? It’s one of those moments that gets every trader’s heart racing. Right now, XRP is doing exactly that around the $1.80 mark, and it’s got a lot of us wondering if we’ve finally hit a meaningful bottom.
I’ve been following XRP for years, through the wild highs and the frustrating lows. There’s something about its price action that always feels dramatic—like it’s constantly teasing a breakout. Lately, after a sharp decline, the price briefly slipped below $1.80 before quickly reclaiming it. That kind of move isn’t random. It’s what many technical traders call a swing failure pattern, and it often signals that sellers are running out of steam.
In this piece, we’re going to dive deep into what’s happening with XRP right now. I’ll break down the pattern, the key levels to watch, and what it could mean for the coming days or weeks. No hype, just straightforward analysis based on what’s showing up on the charts.
Understanding the Swing Failure Pattern in XRP
Let’s start with the basics. A swing failure pattern (or SFP) happens when price breaks a significant high or low but fails to hold the breakout. In a bearish context like we’ve seen recently, it’s when price drops below support, triggers stops and panic selling, then rapidly reverses higher.
Think of it as a trap for late bears. They pile in thinking the breakdown is real, only to get squeezed when buyers step in aggressively. For XRP, this played out perfectly around $1.80. The price wicked lower, grabbed liquidity, and closed back above the level. That’s textbook downside exhaustion.
Why does this matter? Because these patterns frequently mark local bottoms, especially after extended sell-offs. It’s not a guarantee, of course—nothing in trading is—but it’s a high-probability setup that deserves attention.
How the Pattern Formed on the Charts
If you pull up the 4-hour or daily XRP/USDT chart, you’ll see the action clearly. After rejecting from higher levels, XRP trended lower and approached $1.80, a zone that’s acted as support multiple times in recent months.
The breach was brief but decisive enough to shake out weak hands. Then came the reversal: strong buying volume pushed price back above $1.80, forming a long lower wick on the candle. That wick is the visual signature of the swing failure.
What’s encouraging is that the reclaim happened with conviction. It wasn’t a slow grind higher—it was a sharp bounce that suggested real demand at those lows. In my experience, the stronger the reversal, the more likely the pattern holds.
Key Support and the Role of Liquidity
One reason these swing failures work so well is liquidity. Below major support levels, there’s usually a pool of stop-loss orders and buy limits waiting to be filled. When price sweeps those lows, it clears out the overhang and creates a cleaner path higher.
For XRP, $1.80 had become a psychological and technical magnet. Holding it now, post-sweep, shifts the near-term bias from bearish to neutral—at minimum. If we start seeing higher lows from here, that could flip it fully bullish.
- Brief breach below $1.80 triggered stops
- Rapid reclaim showed aggressive buying
- Long lower wick indicates rejection of lower prices
- Cleared liquidity below support for potential upside
The Point of Control Resistance at $1.98
While the swing failure at $1.80 is promising, there’s a big hurdle overhead. The Point of Control (POC)—the price level with the highest traded volume in the visible range—sits right around $1.98.
This isn’t just a random number. The POC represents fair value in volume profile terms. Price tends to gravitate toward it, and breaking above it often signals a shift in control. XRP has rejected from this area multiple times recently, so reclaiming it on a closing basis would be significant confirmation.
Until that happens, we’re still in a range-bound environment. The price can bounce, but without acceptance above $1.98, any upside risks being temporary.
In volume profile analysis, the POC acts as a value anchor. Trading below it suggests sellers remain dominant, even if downside momentum is fading.
Fibonacci Levels and the Current Pullback
Another tool that’s lining up nicely is the Fibonacci retracement. Drawing from the recent swing high to low, the 0.618 Fibonacci level aligns closely with areas XRP is testing during this pullback.
The golden ratio often acts as strong support in corrective phases. If XRP holds here and starts forming higher lows, it would reinforce the swing failure setup and increase the odds of a larger reversal.
On the flip side, losing the 0.618 level would invalidate much of the bullish argument and open the door to retesting $1.80—or lower.
Volume Profile and Market Structure Context
Zooming out a bit, XRP remains below the Value Area Low of the broader range. This means we’re still in low-value territory from a profile perspective. Acceptance back into the value area would require pushing above that $1.98 POC.
Market structure hasn’t flipped decisively yet. We’re in a transitional phase—neither fully bearish nor bullish. The swing failure offers hope for bulls, but it needs follow-through to matter.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how cleanly the pattern has formed. It’s not messy or ambiguous; it’s a clear sweep and reclaim. Those tend to have higher success rates in my observation.
What a Confirmed Breakout Could Target
Assuming XRP does reclaim $1.98 with volume, where could it go next? The immediate target would likely be the $2.20 region, where previous selling pressure emerged.
That level also aligns with prior highs and the upper boundary of the recent range. Breaking it cleanly could open a move toward $2.50 or higher, depending on broader market conditions.
- Reclaim and close above $1.98 POC
- Target initial resistance at $2.20
- Potential extension to range highs near $2.50
- Watch for increased volume on breakout
Of course, this is all contingent on confirmation. Failed breakouts happen, especially in choppy markets.
Risks and Why Caution Is Still Warranted
It’s easy to get excited about reversal patterns, but I’ve learned the hard way that excitement alone doesn’t pay the bills. There are real risks here.
First, swing failure patterns can fail. If buyers don’t defend the Fibonacci support and price breaks lower again, we could see a deeper correction. Second, broader crypto sentiment matters. If Bitcoin rolls over, altcoins like XRP often follow.
Third, volume has been declining on recent bounces. A true reversal needs expanding volume on the upside, not just relief rallies.
Broader Market Context for XRP
XRP doesn’t move in isolation. While Bitcoin hovers near all-time highs, many altcoins remain in corrective phases. This divergence has kept pressure on XRP despite positive developments like growing ETF interest.
Interestingly, institutional flows into XRP-related products have been climbing even as spot price weakens. That disconnect often precedes reversals, as smart money accumulates during distribution phases.
But until spot price confirms strength, it’s just a narrative. Charts over stories, always.
What to Watch in the Coming Sessions
Over the next few days, a few things will tell us a lot:
- Does price hold the 0.618 Fib and form higher lows?
- Can we get a strong close above $1.98 with rising volume?
- Is there follow-through buying or just short covering?
- How does XRP react to Bitcoin’s next big move?
If we start ticking these boxes, the swing failure could indeed mark a meaningful bottom. If not, we’ll likely stay range-bound or retest lower levels.
Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Right now, the setup leans constructive for bulls, but it needs confirmation. Patience is key.
I’ve seen patterns like this play out beautifully, and I’ve seen them fail spectacularly. The difference usually comes down to follow-through and volume. Keep an eye on those, and let the price action guide you.
Whatever happens next, moments like these are what make technical analysis so fascinating. The chart is telling a story—it’s up to us to listen carefully.
At the end of the day, XRP’s swing failure at $1.80 has put it at an inflection point. The structure is there for a reversal, but it needs to prove itself. If you’re trading it, manage risk tightly and wait for confirmation. The market rewards patience far more often than impatience.
