Have you ever watched a token surge for months, convincing everyone the party will never end, only to see the exact catalyst that fueled the run quietly start to fizzle out? That’s pretty much where we are with XRP right now.
Sitting at roughly $2.07 while Bitcoin flirts with new highs above $91,000, XRP is suddenly the odd one out. Most altcoins are at least holding their ground, yet Ripple’s native token can’t seem to push past $2.18 this week. And the deeper you dig, the more the picture darkens.
The RLUSD Wake-Up Call Nobody Is Talking About
Ripple launched its dollar-pegged stablecoin RLUSD with plenty of fanfare. The idea was simple: give institutions a compliant, regulated bridge between traditional finance and the XRP Ledger, and watch real-world utility finally push XRP higher.
The supply side of the story still looks decent. Over $1.3 billion RLUSD now exists, up more than 23% in the past month alone. That part of the narrative is holding up. But supply is only half the battle. What actually matters is whether anyone is using the thing.
And the answer, unfortunately for XRP bulls, is increasingly “not really.”
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Let’s run through the damage:
- Adjusted transaction volume down a brutal 60% in the last 30 days – now just $2.8 billion
- Total transactions collapsed 46% to around 424,000
- Daily active addresses slipped 28% over the same period
Sixty percent. That’s not a hiccup; that’s a cliff. In crypto, stablecoin activity is often the closest thing we have to measuring genuine economic demand. When people move billions through USDT or USDC every day, it tells you the ecosystem is alive. When a brand-new stablecoin loses most of its momentum in a month, alarm bells should ring.
Perhaps the most telling detail? The overwhelming majority of RLUSD volume is happening on Ethereum, not the XRP Ledger. On a recent day, Ethereum saw $84 million in RLUSD transfers while the XRP Ledger managed a measly $2.7 million. That ratio speaks volumes about where institutions actually feel comfortable right now.
XRP ETFs: The Honeymoon Is Over
Another supposed tailwind was the arrival of spot XRP ETFs. The narrative went that billions would pour in once Wall Street had an easy on-ramp.
Reality has been far more muted. After a brief burst of excitement, daily inflows have slowed dramatically. One recent session saw just $8.7 million trickle in – barely a rounding error compared to the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF numbers we’ve grown used to.
Yes, cumulative inflows are approaching the $1 billion mark, and outflows have stayed at zero. That’s the silver lining. But slowing inflows during a raging bull market is rarely a bullish signal. It suggests the “easy money” has already arrived and the marginal buyer is getting harder to find.
What the Chart Is Whispering
Zoom out to the eight-hour timeframe and things get even less comforting.
XRP has carved out a textbook symmetrical triangle over the past couple of weeks. These patterns are continuation setups about 70% of the time, and given the preceding move was upward, the path of least resistance should technically be higher.
Except the price just dipped below the Ichimoku cloud – never a great look – and the Supertrend indicator has stayed stubbornly red all month. In my experience, when multiple higher-timeframe tools line up bearishly inside a compression pattern, the eventual breakout tends to surprise the crowd.
The key level everyone is watching is $1.82 – the November 21 swing low. A decisive close below there would invalidate the entire post-election breakout and likely trigger a fast move toward $1.60 or lower. Conversely, a push above the upper trendline near $2.25 would flip the script and probably ignite another leg higher.
In bull markets, hope dies last. But on-chain data and slowing institutional flows have a nasty habit of killing hope first.
Why This Matters More Than Most Realize
For years, the XRP community has been waiting for “utility” to finally matter. The SEC case resolution was supposed to be the starting gun. RLUSD and ODL expansion were meant to be the fuel. ETFs were the cherry on top.
We’re now several months into the post-SEC world, and the fuel gauge is blinking red. If RLUSD can’t maintain meaningful transaction volume while competing stablecoins print new highs almost daily, the core investment thesis starts to wobble.
Don’t get me wrong – Ripple still has regulatory clarity that 99% of projects would kill for, and the company itself is printing cash. But token price has always been about narrative meeting reality. Right now, reality is sending some uncomfortable signals.
What Happens Next?
Two scenarios seem most likely.
Bearish case: The triangle resolves downward, RLUSD continues bleeding volume, and XRP retraces a large chunk of its post-election gains. $1.60–$1.80 becomes the new range while the market rotates back into Bitcoin and the handful of altcoins actually showing strength.
Bullish case: Ripple announces major new banking partnerships or RLUSD gets picked up by one of the large payment networks everyone has been whispering about. Volume spikes, the triangle breaks upward, and XRP blasts toward the old all-time high zone around $3.30+.
Right now the weight of evidence leans bearish, but crypto has a way of making fools of anyone who gets too confident. The Federal Reserve decision this week could also shake things up – a dovish pivot might give everything a lift, while any hint of caution could hit the higher-beta names like XRP hardest.
Either way, the RLUSD metrics deserve to be front and center in any XRP discussion going forward. A stablecoin that can’t keep users engaged is like a highway with no cars – impressive infrastructure, but ultimately meaningless for the token meant to pay the tolls.
Keep an eye on that transaction volume chart. If it starts curling higher again, the bulls might have life yet. If it keeps sliding, well… $1.82 is waiting, and it won’t be pretty.
In this market, nothing is guaranteed except volatility. But the data we have today paints a picture that XRP holders should probably take seriously.
