Yesterday I woke up, opened my phone, and almost dropped my coffee.
Zcash was down twenty-four percent. In one day. While Bitcoin was basically flat and Ethereum only bled a couple of points, the OG privacy coin was getting absolutely destroyed. I’ve been in crypto since 2017 and I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve seen a top-50 coin move that violently without some exchange getting hacked or a regulator dropping a bomb.
So I did what any rational (or slightly addicted) trader does: I started digging.
What Actually Happened to Zcash?
Let’s get the brutal facts out of the way first.
As of December 2, 2025, ZEC is trading around $323 after touching an intra-day low near $316. That’s a 24-hour drop of roughly 11-24% depending on which exchange you look at (the highest wick was savage). On the weekly timeframe it’s down over 36%, and from a November all-time high above $700 to basically half that in less than thirty days.
For context, that makes Zcash the worst performer among the top 100 coins this week. Monero is down “only” 8%. Bitcoin? Still hovering near $86k. The broader altcoin market is hurting, sure, but nothing comes close to this level of pain.
Technically, the picture is even uglier.
- Lost the $400 horizontal support that held since early October
- Broke the 200-day EMA with a textbook bearish retest and rejection
- Closed below the lower boundary of the three-month ascending channel
- Volume spiked exactly on the breakdown – classic distribution pattern
In plain English: everything that could go wrong did go wrong, and it happened fast.
The Parabolic Rally That Came Before the Pain
Here’s the part most weekend traders missed: Zcash didn’t just randomly explode in November. It went absolutely parabolic.
From roughly $90 in late August to over $700 in mid-November – that’s a 7x in less than 90 days. I’ve been around long enough to know that moves like that almost never end softly. They either keep going vertical (rare) or they correct violently. Guess which one we got.
Personally, I took profits around $580 and got called every name in the book on Twitter for “selling the privacy king too early.” Watching the price run another 20% after I sold hurt, I won’t lie. But seeing it give literally all of that back – and more – in a couple of weeks? Vindication tastes sweet.
Is This Just a Healthy Correction?
Here’s where things get interesting.
Some very sharp people I respect are calling this move completely normal. Their argument goes like this: when something 7x in three months, a 50% retrace is actually conservative. Look at Solana in 2021, look at Render earlier this year – violent parabolic moves almost always give back 50-70% before the next leg.
“A correction after that kind of rally is normal. Higher timeframes still look incredible. Privacy isn’t a narrative – private money is the entire point of crypto.”
– Helius CEO Mert Mumtaz, December 2025
And honestly? He’s not wrong.
When you zoom out to the monthly chart, Zcash is still up 300% year-to-date and sitting on top of major multi-year support around $280-300. The privacy thesis hasn’t disappeared – if anything, with governments getting more aggressive about chain surveillance, shielded transactions feel more relevant than ever.
The Bear Case Nobody Wants to Talk About
But let’s be real for a second.
There’s a darker scenario playing out, and pretending it doesn’t exist would be irresponsible.
- Zcash’s shielded pool usage has been in steady decline for years (yes, even during the rally)
- Development funding drama never fully went away – the community is still split
- Monero has eaten most of its lunch on the privacy front
- Regulatory pressure on privacy coins is arguably higher than ever
- Exchange delistings keep happening quietly in the background
I’ve seen coins go parabolic on pure narrative before, only to fade into irrelevance when the music stopped. Remember 2019’s privacy coin season? Half those projects are literally dead now.
If Zcash loses the $280-300 zone – which also happens to be the 2021 all-time high – then we’re probably looking at a full macro trend reversal. $150-180 would be my next major target in that scenario. And yes, that would be ugly.
What the Charts Are Really Saying Right Now
Let me put my trader hat on for a minute.
The daily chart is broken. No sugarcoating it. We have lower highs, lower lows, and momentum indicators that look like they want to keep bleeding. The weekly RSI just hit oversold levels we haven’t seen since the 2022 bottom – that’s either a capitulation signal or the start of a longer bear phase.
But here’s the twist nobody is talking about: volume on the way down has been massive, but the final capitulation volume hasn’t arrived yet. That usually means one more leg lower to shake out the remaining bulls before any meaningful bounce.
My personal levels to watch:
- $280-300 – monthly support + 2021 ATH. Must hold or we’re in trouble
- $400-420 – first real resistance if we get a dead-cat bounce
- $500 – the line between “healthy correction” and “new bull market”
So… Should You Buy the Dip?
Look, I’m not your financial advisor (thank God), but here’s how I’m playing it personally.
I’m keeping the majority of my dry powder on the sidelines until we either:
- Reclaim the EMA200 (~$450) with conviction, or
- Sweep the $280 low and show strong reversal candles + volume spike
Anything in between feels like catching a falling knife.
That said, if we do get that final capitulation flush to $250-280 and it holds? I’ll be backing up the truck. Because at those levels, with privacy becoming more valuable by the day, Zcash would be trading at a valuation that simply doesn’t make sense for the tech it pioneered.
Sometimes the best trades are the ones that feel the most terrifying.
Zcash at $300 after a 50% crash feels terrifying to most people right now.
Which is exactly why it’s interesting.
Whatever happens next, one thing is certain: the next few weeks are going to be wild. Privacy coins live and die by volatility, and Zcash just reminded everyone why it earned the crown in the first place.
Buckle up.
