Can XRP Hold $1.26 Support Amid Rising Selling Pressure

I’ve been watching XRP trade in a tight range for weeks, and the latest bounce to around $1.30 feels more like a temporary pause than a real turnaround. The token managed a modest gain of roughly 1.56 percent over 24 hours, yet it still sits almost 17 percent lower than a month ago. That kind of recovery often fools newer traders into thinking the worst is over. In my view, the real story sits underneath the price action: fewer large wallets, higher balances on exchanges, and technical signals that still lean bearish.

Why the Recent Rebound Looks Fragile

XRP spent the past several sessions struggling to hold the $1.30 area. Buyers finally pushed it above that level on Sunday, but the move lacked the volume and conviction needed for a sustained rally. Daily trading volume hovered near $1.33 billion while the market capitalization stayed around $82 billion, keeping XRP in fifth place among major cryptocurrencies. Those numbers look respectable on paper. The problem is that the token has failed repeatedly to reclaim $1.40 throughout October. Each attempt has been met with fresh selling.

The trading range itself tells part of the story. During the latest session the price moved between $1.26 and $1.31. That lower boundary now acts as the line in the sand for many short-term traders. A clean break below it would likely accelerate selling. I’ve seen this pattern before in other large-cap altcoins: a modest bounce, some optimistic commentary, then another leg lower once the support finally cracks.

Whale Activity Points to Distribution

One of the clearer warning signs comes from large holders. Wallets containing between 10 million and 100 million XRP dropped from 351 to 339 over recent weeks. That reduction of twelve wallets may not sound dramatic, yet it represents real size. These addresses rarely move small amounts. When their numbers shrink, it usually means some of the biggest players are either redistributing holdings or reducing exposure.

At the same time, exchange-associated balances climbed by roughly 47 million XRP, from about 11.003 billion to 11.05 billion. At current prices that increase equals more than $60 million in potential selling supply. Exchange balances do not automatically mean coins will be sold. Custody transfers, collateral movements, and internal wallet management all inflate the numbers. Still, the direction of the flow matters. More tokens sitting on exchanges create a larger pool of liquid supply that can hit the market quickly if confidence slips.

Some of the largest whales on the XRP Ledger appear to be reducing their exposure. That decline raises the possibility of growing selling pressure.

Earlier data showed large transfers to major exchanges reaching a seven-month high, with the monthly average value of deposits exceeding one million XRP climbing toward $112 million. Transfers of that size often precede distribution periods, though they do not prove that selling has already occurred. The combination of fewer mid-tier whale wallets and rising exchange reserves simply stacks the odds in favor of continued pressure.

Network Growth Versus Price Weakness

Interestingly, on-chain activity has not collapsed. The number of non-empty XRP Ledger wallets recently hit a record near 8.24 million, with thousands of new addresses appearing in a single day. That kind of growth shows the network itself continues to attract users. Yet price action has largely ignored the positive metric. I’ve noticed this disconnect before: healthy network expansion does not always translate into immediate buying pressure when larger holders are distributing.

The divergence creates a curious situation. Retail interest and address growth remain steady while the bigger players appear more cautious. That imbalance can persist for weeks until one side finally dominates. Right now the selling side holds the clearer edge in the short term.

ETF Flows Have Slowed Noticeably

Institutional demand through spot XRP exchange-traded funds has also cooled. After recording about $3.55 million in net inflows on one recent day, the following session showed zero net flows. The previous day had brought in roughly $700,000. Those two positive sessions together added around $4.26 million before the flat reading. Earlier in the month the funds even saw net withdrawals of approximately $1.84 million during one stretch, ending a long streak of consecutive positive weeks.

Cumulative inflows still sit close to $1.8 billion, which remains a respectable total. The pace, however, has slowed considerably compared with stronger periods earlier in the fall. ETF flows only capture one slice of demand. They do not reflect every purchase or sale happening across the broader market. Even so, the slowdown removes a source of steady buying that had helped absorb some of the selling pressure in previous weeks.

Technical Picture Still Favors Sellers

Looking at the daily chart, the technical backdrop remains cautious. The Relative Strength Index sits near 39, slightly below its moving average and well under the neutral 50 level. That reading shows buying momentum has not recovered enough to reverse the broader decline. The MACD line stays below its signal line with a negative histogram, confirming that short-term momentum continues to favor the downside.

Several analysts have highlighted $1.26 as the lower edge of a descending channel that has been forming since August. A confirmed break below that level would open the door toward $1.11 and eventually $0.98 according to some chartists. Other observers point to $1.24 and $1.20 as intermediate supports if the current recovery fails. On the upside, resistance remains firm near $1.35, followed by $1.40 and $1.50. Those levels have already rejected multiple attempts this month.

In my experience, descending channels of this type often resolve with a decisive move once the lower boundary gives way. The longer the price consolidates just above support, the more explosive the eventual break can become. That does not guarantee a breakdown will occur. It simply means the risk is elevated until the market proves otherwise.

Key Levels Traders Are Watching Closely

Here is a simplified view of the levels that matter most right now:

These numbers are not predictions. They simply mark the zones where order flow has clustered in recent weeks. A daily close below $1.26 would likely force many short-term holders to reassess their positions. Conversely, a strong reclaim of $1.35 with rising volume would begin to challenge the current bearish bias.

What Could Change the Outlook

Several factors could still shift the balance. A renewed wave of ETF inflows would absorb some of the excess supply sitting on exchanges. A clear reduction in large deposits to trading platforms would ease distribution concerns. And a broader recovery in Bitcoin and the rest of the market would provide a more supportive backdrop for XRP to climb higher.

On the other hand, continued declines in the number of large wallets combined with further increases in exchange balances would reinforce the selling narrative. Technical momentum remaining stuck below the 50 RSI level would also keep pressure on the price. In short, the market needs either fresh demand or a clear reduction in available supply before the tone can improve in a meaningful way.

I’ve found that these periods of quiet distribution often last longer than most people expect. Traders grow tired of the sideways action and gradually reduce exposure. That slow bleed can eventually turn into a sharper move once a key level finally breaks. Whether that happens at $1.26 or somewhere slightly lower remains to be seen.

Practical Considerations for Market Participants

Anyone holding or considering XRP at these levels faces a straightforward risk-reward question. The immediate upside to the next resistance cluster sits relatively close, while the downside toward the next supports is larger if the current floor fails. Position sizing and clear invalidation levels become more important in this kind of environment.

• Watch the daily close relative to $1.26 for confirmation of strength or weakness
• Monitor changes in exchange balances for signs of fresh supply
• Track the number of large wallets as a rough gauge of whale conviction
• Pay attention to ETF flow data for institutional demand signals
• Keep an eye on broader market direction, especially Bitcoin’s behavior

None of these indicators work in isolation. They become useful only when viewed together. A single data point can easily mislead. The combination of rising exchange reserves, declining whale wallet counts, soft technical momentum, and slowing institutional flows currently paints a cautious picture.

Looking Beyond the Immediate Range

Longer term, XRP still benefits from a large and active community plus ongoing network development. The recent record in non-empty wallets shows that interest has not disappeared. Yet markets often price in near-term supply and demand dynamics long before they reward fundamental progress. That lag can create extended periods of underperformance even when the underlying technology continues to improve.

For now the focus remains on the $1.26 area. Holding that level would keep the possibility of a higher recovery alive. Losing it cleanly would likely shift attention toward the lower supports and force a reassessment of short-term targets. The market will reveal its preference in the coming sessions. Until then, the evidence leans toward continued caution rather than aggressive optimism.

The modest rebound to $1.30 has bought a little time. It has not erased the underlying pressure building from large holders and rising liquid supply. Whether that pressure ultimately breaks the support or gets absorbed by fresh demand is the central question for the days ahead. Traders who respect the levels and the flow data will be better prepared for either outcome.

In the end, price action remains the final referee. All the wallet counts, exchange balances, and indicator readings simply help frame the probabilities. Right now those probabilities favor the idea that $1.26 is a level worth watching closely. A successful defense would open the door to another attempt at higher ground. A failure would likely open a deeper path lower. The next few daily closes should provide clearer answers.